Gangwon FC
vs
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gangwon FC 1–0 Bucheon FC 1995
The model makes it 42% Gangwon FC, 30% draw, 28% Bucheon FC 1995 — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gangwon FC 1.47, Bucheon FC 1995 1.01.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gangwon FC at 42% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Gangwon FC
- L0-1Jeju United FC20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC13 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors9 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Anyang6 September 2026
- D0-0Pohang Steelers30 August 2026
Bucheon FC 1995
- L0-2Gimcheon Sangmu FC19 September 2026
- D2-2Jeju United FC12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Incheon United8 September 2026
- L0-5Daejeon Citizen5 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang29 August 2026
What these results say
- Gangwon FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bucheon FC 1995 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bucheon FC 1995 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 42 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
- 1 August 2026Gangwon FC 0–3 Bucheon FC 1995K League 1
- 18 March 2026Bucheon FC 1995 0–0 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 5 November 2016Bucheon FC 1995 1–2 Gangwon FCK League 2
- 5 October 2016Gangwon FC 0–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 2
- 20 August 2016Gangwon FC 0–2 Bucheon FC 1995K League 2
- 10 July 2016Bucheon FC 1995 0–1 Gangwon FCK League 2
Leading scorers: Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal4 goals
- Mo Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Bucheon FC 1995
- Jefferson Galego4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gangwon FC carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.38 for Bucheon FC 1995. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Gangwon FC and 1.01 for Bucheon FC 1995. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gangwon FC rate 0.65 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.63 and 1.60.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 1.01 for Bucheon FC 1995. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.6 for Bucheon FC 1995.