Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Incheon United 3-0 Pohang Steelers.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Incheon United, 31% draw, 27% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Incheon United at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-HeonG
- 39Kim Myung-SunD
- 4Kim Geon-HuiD
- 2Juan FernándezD
- 32Lee Ju-YongD
- 17Kim Seong-MinM
- 5Lee Myung-JooM
- 26Lee Min-HyeokM
- 72Lee Chung-YongF
- 9S. MugošaF
- 70Leandro RibeiroF
- 13Choi Seung-GuD
- 99M. FerrierF
- 11GersoF
- 10Lee Dong-RyulF
- 3Lee Sang-GiD
- 21Lee Tae-HuiG
- 20Park Kyung-SubD
- 77Park Seung-HoF
- 15Seo Jae-MinM
- 21Hwang In-JaeG
- 2Eo Jeong-WonD
- 17Shin Kwang-HoonD
- 4Jeon Min-GwangD
- 20Park Chan-YongD
- 77WandersonD
- 31K. NishiyaM
- 40Ki Sung-YuengM
- 16Kim Dong-JinM
- 11Juninho RochaF
- 25Jorge LuizF
- 13Kang Min-JunD
- 8Kim Seung-HoM
- 3Ye-Sung KimD
- 14Lee Chang-WooD
- 10J. TranziskaF
- 37Jung Han-MinF
- 5Jin Si-wooD
- 29Hong Seong-MinG
- 9An Jae-JunF
Form going into Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
Incheon United
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC27 September 2026
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
Pohang Steelers
All competitions we cover
- W2-1FC Seoul20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen12 September 2026
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Jeonbuk Motors5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pohang Steelers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Incheon United | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 37 | +7 | 49 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
- 12 May 2026Incheon United 0–1 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 15 March 2026Pohang Steelers 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 27 September 2024Pohang Steelers 1–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 23 June 2024Incheon United 1–3 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 28 April 2024Pohang Steelers 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 20 October 2023Pohang Steelers 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Pohang Steelers
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša111
- M. Ferrier51
Pohang Steelers
GoalsAssists
- Juninho Rocha41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Incheon United beat Pohang Steelers 3–0. The model had made a win for Incheon United its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lee Min-hyuk 17' for Incheon United, Lee Chung-Yong 40' for Incheon United, Stefan Mugoša 45+2' for Incheon United.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Incheon United a 4.2% chance to finish in the top four: 8.5% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.5%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.
For Pohang Steelers the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 2.1% going in: 6.9% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Incheon United v Pohang Steelers has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Incheon United's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Incheon United win42%▲ +2
- Draw31%=
- Pohang Steelers win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.