Incheon United
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Incheon United 1–0 Pohang Steelers
The model makes it 40% Incheon United, 31% draw, 29% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Incheon United 1.25, Pohang Steelers 0.90.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Incheon United at 40% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
Incheon United
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors30 August 2026
Pohang Steelers
- W2-1FC Seoul20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen12 September 2026
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Jeonbuk Motors5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pohang Steelers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Incheon United | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 38 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
- 12 May 2026Incheon United 0–1 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 15 March 2026Pohang Steelers 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 27 September 2024Pohang Steelers 1–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 23 June 2024Incheon United 1–3 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 28 April 2024Pohang Steelers 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 20 October 2023Pohang Steelers 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Pohang Steelers
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša9 goals
- M. Ferrier5 goals
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
- J. Tranziska3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Incheon United carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.4 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Incheon United and 0.90 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Incheon United rate 0.64 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.55 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pohang Steelers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Incheon United against 0.9 for Pohang Steelers. Incheon United's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.39 for Pohang Steelers.