10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Oldham vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction & result

Boundary Park, Oldham
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Oldham 0-0 Accrington Stanley.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Oldham, 27% draw, 27% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oldham at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oldham5%Draw92%Accrington Stanley3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Joseph Anderson
Lewis Temple
11'
15'
🔁Seamus Conneelyout: Aidan borland
45'
🔁Alex Hendersonout: Conor Grant
🔁Lewis Templeout: will sutton
56'
🔁Oliver Hammondout: Kane drummond
56'
Kane drummond
75'
🔁Tom Pettout: Mike·Fondop-Talum
76'
80'
David Tutonda
Jamie Robson
83'

Match stats — Oldham vs Accrington Stanley

48%Possession52%
4Shots11
0On target1
2Corners9
0.18xG0.58

Goals against chances

Oldham0 from 0.18 xGabout what the chances were worth
Accrington Stanley0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oldham 3-4-2-1
  • 1M. HudsonG
  • 24L. TempleD
  • 5D. DanielsD
  • 6E. MontheD
  • 2G. Scott-MorrissM
  • 4T. PettM
  • 8O. NorburnM
  • 3J. RobsonM
  • 7K. Appiah-ForsonM
  • 27O. HammondM
  • 10C. KavanaghF
Substitutes
  • 15K. DrummondF
  • 17F. FawunmiF
  • 9M. Fondop-TalumF
  • 26Kai PayneM
  • 16W. SuttonD
  • 22Wilson WilsonG
  • 14N. ChilversM
Coach: Micky Mellon
Accrington Stanley 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. MouldenG
  • 17D. MatthewsD
  • 28S. ConneelyD
  • 22J. AndersonD
  • 2D. LoveM
  • 38C. O'BrienM
  • 10Alex HendersonM
  • 14Stefan MolsM
  • 33D. TutondaM
  • 30C. WarrenF
  • 23T. WaltonF
Substitutes
  • 16Aidan BorlandM
  • 27J. CatesbyF
  • 8C. GrantM
  • 21J. RogersonG
  • 25J. SmithD
  • 3Oliver SmithD
  • 20C. BrownF
Coach: J. Doolan

Form going into Oldham vs Accrington Stanley

Oldham

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4Salford City26 September 2026

Accrington Stanley

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Cheltenham3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Oldham144371519-415
9Accrington Stanley144732317+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oldham vs Accrington Stanley

  • 2 May 2026Oldham 3–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 29 November 2025Accrington Stanley 1–0 OldhamLeague Two
  • 5 August 2025Accrington Stanley 3–1 OldhamLeague Cup
  • 24 August 2021Oldham 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Cup
  • 8 October 2019Oldham 0–3 Accrington StanleyEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Oldham and Accrington Stanley

Oldham

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kavanagh54

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oldham and Accrington Stanley drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Oldham at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.18–0.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oldham a 14.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.5% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 17.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.1%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For Accrington Stanley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.6% after a win, 20.5% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 20.5%.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.