Oldham
vs
Accrington Stanley
League Two prediction
Our model says: Oldham 1–0 Accrington Stanley
The model makes it 46% Oldham, 28% draw, 26% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oldham 1.77, Accrington Stanley 1.07.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Oldham vs Accrington Stanley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oldham at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oldham vs Accrington Stanley
Oldham
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town1 September 2026
- W3-0Swindon Town29 August 2026
Accrington Stanley
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
- W3-2Crawley Town5 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby1 September 2026
- L2-3away to Walsall29 August 2026
What these results say
- Oldham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Oldham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Oldham and Accrington Stanley
Oldham
- C. Kavanagh3 goals3 assists
Accrington Stanley
- C. Caton5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Oldham carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.03 for Accrington Stanley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Oldham and 1.07 for Accrington Stanley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oldham rate 0.51 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Accrington Stanley rate 0.46 and 2.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oldham a 0.3% chance of the title and Accrington Stanley 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oldham the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Oldham against 1.07 for Accrington Stanley. Oldham's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.39 for Accrington Stanley.