Shenyang Urban
vs
Wuhan Three Towns
Super League prediction
Our model says: Shenyang Urban 2–1 Wuhan Three Towns
The model makes it 41% Shenyang Urban, 26% draw, 33% Wuhan Three Towns — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Shenyang Urban 1.93, Wuhan Three Towns 1.62.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shenyang Urban at 41% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shenyang Urban vs Wuhan Three Towns
Shenyang Urban
- L0-1away to Tianjin Teda12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Yunnan Yukun6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chengdu Better City29 August 2026
- D4-4Henan Jianye23 August 2026
- L1-2Sichuan Jiuniu15 August 2026
Wuhan Three Towns
- L1-4away to Hangzhou Greentown18 September 2026
- D1-1Henan Jianye12 September 2026
- D2-2Qingdao Youth Island5 September 2026
- W5-1away to Qingdao Jonoon29 August 2026
- D0-0Tianjin Teda22 August 2026
What these results say
- Shenyang Urban did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Shenyang Urban conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shenyang Urban had three goals or more.
- Wuhan Three Towns failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Shenyang Urban and Wuhan Three Towns
Shenyang Urban
- Jeffinho10 goals2 assists
- G. Mbenza9 goals1 assists
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz18 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shenyang Urban carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.19 for Wuhan Three Towns. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.62 for Wuhan Three Towns. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shenyang Urban rate 0.50 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.54 and 2.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shenyang Urban the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Shenyang Urban against 1.62 for Wuhan Three Towns. Shenyang Urban's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.04 for Wuhan Three Towns.