11 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC St. Gallen vs Lausanne Super League prediction & result

Kybunpark, St. Gallen
Referee: Huseyin Sanli
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FC St. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% FC St. Gallen, 25% draw, 19% Lausanne — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Gallen at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC St. Gallen97%Draw3%Lausanne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Brandon Soppy
Mihailo Stevanovic
17'
⚽Lukas Görtler (pen)
29'
🔁Mihailo Stevanovicout: Carlo Boukhalfa
45'
Mostafa Heydari
46'
59'
🔁Brandon Soppyout: Olivier Custodio
59'
🔁Alexis Blinout: Papa Souleymane N'Diaye
59'
🔁Alban Ajdiniout: Omar Janneh
🔁Mostafa Heydariout: Joel Ruiz
65'
68'
🔁Levy Neneout: Enzo Molebe
🔁Aliou Baldeout: Nevio Scherrer
71'
🔁Lukas Görtlerout: Behar·Neziri
71'
75'
Papa Souleymane N'Diaye
82'
🔁Dircssi Ngonzoout: Ibrahim Bah Mendes
83'
Olivier Custodio
🔁Lukas Daschnerout: Betim Fazliji
84'
Christian Witzig
88'
88'
Florent Mollet

Match stats — FC St. Gallen vs Lausanne

41%Possession59%
14Shots9
5On target4
6Corners8
1.65xG0.86

Goals against chances

FC St. Gallen1 from 1.65 xGless than the chances were worth
Lausanne0 from 0.86 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. ZigiG
  • 26T. GaalD
  • 4J. StanićD
  • 68M. HeydariD
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 7C. WitzigM
  • 16L. GörtlerM
  • 10L. DaschnerM
  • 28H. VandermerschM
  • 9A. HunzikerF
  • 14A. BaldeF
Substitutes
  • 27K. CsobothM
  • 11C. BoukhalfaM
  • 23B. FazlijiM
  • 20L. FrokajM
  • 6B. NeziriM
  • 47E. OwusuM
  • 74J. RuizD
  • 70N. ScherrerF
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
Coach: E. Maaßen
Lausanne 3-4-3
  • 90M. MastilG
  • 4É. YoutéD
  • 31N. CozzaD
  • 5D. NgonzoD
  • 2B. SoppyM
  • 29A. BlinM
  • 91F. MolletM
  • 18M. PoatyM
  • 11N. Butler-OyedejiF
  • 7A. AjdiniF
  • 77L. NeneF
Substitutes
  • 51I. Bah Mendes MayalaF
  • 1T. CastellaG
  • 78Omar JannehF
  • 9E. MolébéF
  • 45Guillem Moreno ViñasD
  • 47Papa Souleymane N'DiayeM
  • 59Oscar RenovalesF
  • 17S. TraoreF
  • 10O. CustodioM
Coach: Luka Elsner

Form going into FC St. Gallen vs Lausanne

FC St. Gallen

Super League

  • W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026

Lausanne

Super League

  • L0-4FC Lugano20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC St. Gallen137152422+222
12Lausanne131481223-117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs Lausanne

  • 8 February 2026Lausanne 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 23 November 2025FC St. Gallen 1–0 LausanneSuper League
  • 31 August 2025Lausanne 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 15 March 2025FC St. Gallen 0–2 LausanneSuper League
  • 26 January 2025FC St. Gallen 3–2 LausanneSuper League

Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and Lausanne

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

  • L. Görtler42
  • A. Hunziker40

Lausanne

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC St. Gallen beat Lausanne 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC St. Gallen at 56%. The goal: Lukas Görtler (penalty) 29' for FC St. Gallen. On expected goals it finished 1.65–0.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC St. Gallen these chances to finish in the top four: 39.9% after a win, 28.1% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 39.9%.

For Lausanne the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 84.8% going in: 74.7% after a win, 85.0% after a draw, 88.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.5%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC St. Gallen v Lausanne has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is FC St. Gallen's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. FC St. Gallen win56%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Lausanne win19%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.