FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FC Gomel 1-5 ML Vitebsk.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC Gomel, 29% draw, 34% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Gomel at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk
Line-ups
- 44S. KleshchukG
- 43D. ShaykhtdinovD
- 16I. ZayatsD
- 33V. SotnikovD
- 4A. GavrilovichD
- 14P. PashevichD
- 7R. AdeolaM
- 19D. SilinskiyM
- 77V. LazarevM
- 23K. DanilinM
- 11T. SimanenkaF
- 13M. MardasF
- 21D. KovalevichM
- 49A. KaratayG
- 8E. BarsukovM
- 17V. MartinkevichM
- 3S. MatveychikD
- 88A. RyzhchenkoG
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 23S. BalanovichD
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 6K. GomanovD
- 45I. MoskalenchikD
- 55V. GromykoM
- 4A. OdeM
- 27A. MesarovićM
- 10D. CleoniseF
- 80A. KontsevoyF
- 12R. BosićF
- 3N. BaranokD
- 15V. BocherovM
- 99M. BulanovF
- 8S. GnakaM
- 7T. IvanovF
- 5M. MohammadiD
- 2Aleksey NoskoM
- 30Pavel ShcherbachenyaG
- 22Y. SkibskiyM
Form going into FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk
FC Gomel
- W2-0away to Baranovichi20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Isloch Minsk R.13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Torpedo Zhodino5 September 2026
- W1-0Belshina28 August 2026
ML Vitebsk
- W5-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Dnepr Mogilev13 September 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Minsk6 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina2 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Gomel scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Gomel won 3 of these 4 matches.
- ML Vitebsk went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- ML Vitebsk failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Gomel | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 23 | +11 | 39 |
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 47 | 18 | +29 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk
- 11 October 2026FC Gomel 1–5 ML VitebskPremier League
- 22 May 2026ML Vitebsk 0–0 FC GomelPremier League
- 23 November 2025ML Vitebsk 5–0 FC GomelPremier League
- 28 June 2025FC Gomel 0–2 ML VitebskPremier League
- 15 February 2025FC Gomel 2–3 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.