Chongqing Tongliang Long
vs
Shandong Luneng
Super League prediction
Our model says: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–2 Shandong Luneng
The model makes it 34% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 29% draw, 37% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.38, Shandong Luneng 1.47.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shandong Luneng at 37% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- L1-3Shanghai Shenhua6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye29 August 2026
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG9 August 2026
Shandong Luneng
- D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Shanghai Shenhua28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
What these results say
- Chongqing Tongliang Long did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shandong Luneng conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shandong Luneng scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shandong Luneng.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan16 goals6 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chongqing Tongliang Long carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.33 for Shandong Luneng. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.47 for Shandong Luneng. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.39 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shandong Luneng rate 0.65 and 1.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shandong Luneng the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 1.47 for Shandong Luneng. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.86 for Shandong Luneng.