11 October 2026, 11:35 UTC

Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Super League prediction & result

Longxing Football Stadium, Chongqing
Referee: Gao Peng, China
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Shandong Luneng.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 27% draw, 38% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shandong Luneng at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chongqing Tongliang Long4%Draw92%Shandong Luneng4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Zhang Zhixiongassist: G. Cimpanu
25'
46'
🔁Liu Yangout: R. Merkies
46'
🔁Memet Imranout: Huang Zhengyu
55'
•V. Qazaishvili
🔁Liang Weipengout: Chen Chunxin
57'
🔁Wei Suoweiout: Liu Mingshi
57'
66'
P. Alvaro
70'
🔁Chen Puout: Shi Songchen
72'
⚽V. Qazaishviliassist: Mijit Mewlan
77'
Gao Zhunyi
78'
🔁Gao Zhunyiout: J. Lu
🔁L. Dimataout: Du Yuezheng
82'
🔁G. Cimpanuout: Wu Yongqiang
82'
85'
🔁Xie Wennengout: Chen Zeshi
Du Yuezheng
90+2'

Match stats — Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng

40%Possession60%
5Shots16
2On target5
6Corners5

Line-ups

Chongqing Tongliang Long
  • 1Yao HaoyangG
  • 37Wei SuoweiD
  • 6Jin PengxiangD
  • 33LucaoD
  • 3Zhang YingkaiD
  • 26He XiaoqiangD
  • 9G. CimpanuM
  • 10I. AmadouM
  • 16Zhang ZhixiongM
  • 18Liang WeipengM
  • 11L. DimataF
Substitutes
  • 25Yerzat YerjetG
  • 31Wu ZitongG
  • 24Liu MingshiD
  • 27Wu YongqiangM
  • 21Liu JialeM
  • 19Du YuezhengF
  • 7Xiang YuwangF
  • 17Ng Yu-HeiF
  • 15Chen ChunxinM
Shandong Luneng 3-4-3
  • 14Wang DaleiG
  • 3Peng XiaoD
  • 23P. AlvaroD
  • 33Gao ZhunyiD
  • 7Xie WennengM
  • 38Memet ImranM
  • 8Guilherme MadrugaM
  • 11Liu YangM
  • 28Mijit MewlanF
  • 10V. QazaishviliF
  • 29Chen PuF
Substitutes
  • 32Sun QihangG
  • 1Yu JinyongG
  • 36Liu QiweiG
  • 35Huang ZhengyuD
  • 5Zheng ZhengD
  • 15Shi SongchenD
  • 22Y. LiM
  • 37Chen ZeshiM
  • 34Yin JiaxiM
Coach: Tian Tang

Form going into Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Super League

  • L1-3Shanghai Shenhua6 September 2026

Shandong Luneng

Super League

  • D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Chongqing Tongliang Long30812103135-436
4Shandong Luneng3016596049+1147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng

  • 16 May 2026Shandong Luneng 3–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongSuper League
  • 22 June 2024Chongqing Tongliang Long 3–6 Shandong LunengFA Cup

Leading scorers: Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng

Chongqing Tongliang Long

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Shandong Luneng

GoalsAssists

  • Cryzan209
  • V. Qazaishvili1010

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Shandong Luneng at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Zhang Zhixiong 25' for Chongqing Tongliang Long, V. Qazaishvili 72' for Shandong Luneng.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shandong Luneng a 37.4% chance to finish in the top four: 57.2% after a win, 33.6% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.6%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chongqing Tongliang Long v Shandong Luneng has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Chongqing Tongliang Long win35%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Shandong Luneng win38%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.