Qingdao Youth Island
vs
Dalian Zhixing
Super League prediction
Our model says: Qingdao Youth Island 1–0 Dalian Zhixing
The model makes it 43% Qingdao Youth Island, 30% draw, 27% Dalian Zhixing — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Qingdao Youth Island 1.51, Dalian Zhixing 0.99.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qingdao Youth Island at 43% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing
Qingdao Youth Island
- D2-2away to Wuhan Three Towns5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tianjin Teda29 August 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng22 August 2026
- D0-0Chongqing Tongliang Long14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
Dalian Zhixing
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon5 September 2026
- D1-1Beijing Guoan28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Chongqing Tongliang Long23 August 2026
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG19 August 2026
- L1-3away to Yunnan Yukun15 August 2026
What these results say
- Qingdao Youth Island went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Youth Island failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qingdao Youth Island had two goals or fewer.
- Dalian Zhixing scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dalian Zhixing conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Dalian Zhixing.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Qingdao Youth Island and Dalian Zhixing
Qingdao Youth Island
- Davidson9 goals4 assists
Dalian Zhixing
- N. Stanciu9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Qingdao Youth Island carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.22 for Dalian Zhixing. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.99 for Dalian Zhixing. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.46 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dalian Zhixing rate 0.49 and 1.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dalian Zhixing, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qingdao Youth Island the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island against 0.99 for Dalian Zhixing. Qingdao Youth Island's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.73 for Dalian Zhixing.