Shelbourne
vs
Waterford
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Shelbourne 2–1 Waterford
The model makes it 44% Shelbourne, 27% draw, 29% Waterford — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Shelbourne 1.60, Waterford 1.18.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Shelbourne are 4th on 43 points from 33 games; Waterford are 8th on 34 points from 32 games — Premier Division.
- Shelbourne are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Sligo Rovers.
- Waterford are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Shamrock Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Waterford 1–0 Shelbourne.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shelbourne vs Waterford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shelbourne at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shelbourne vs Waterford
Shelbourne
- W5-1Sligo Rovers9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Galway United25 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dundalk18 September 2026
- L1-2Drogheda United14 September 2026
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
Waterford
- L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers18 September 2026
- D2-2Derry City14 September 2026
- D1-1Dundalk11 September 2026
- W2-0away to St Patrick's Athletic28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sligo Rovers21 August 2026
What these results say
- Shelbourne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shelbourne.
- Waterford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waterford scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 43 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shelbourne vs Waterford
- 2 August 2026Waterford 1–0 ShelbournePremier Division
- 22 May 2026Shelbourne 2–1 WaterfordPremier Division
- 6 February 2026Waterford 1–1 ShelbournePremier Division
- 26 September 2025Shelbourne 2–1 WaterfordPremier Division
- 23 June 2025Waterford 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 5 May 2025Shelbourne 0–1 WaterfordPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Waterford
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- J. Martin82
- D. Kelly73
Waterford
GoalsAssists
- T. Lonergan144
- P. Amond91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shelbourne carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.21 for Waterford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Shelbourne and 1.18 for Waterford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shelbourne rate 0.54 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waterford rate 0.56 and 2.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shelbourne the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Shelbourne against 1.18 for Waterford. Shelbourne's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.03 for Waterford.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shelbourne at home · Waterford away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Shelbourne 33, Waterford 32.
Waterford score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Shelbourne have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.