Sligo Rovers
vs
Dundalk
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Sligo Rovers 0–1 Dundalk
The model makes it 32% Sligo Rovers, 29% draw, 39% Dundalk — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sligo Rovers 1.18, Dundalk 1.46.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Sligo Rovers are bottom on 23 points from 32 games; Dundalk are 5th on 41 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- Sligo Rovers have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to St Patrick's Athletic.
- Dundalk are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bohemians.
- Last 6 meetings: Sligo Rovers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended Dundalk 1–1 Sligo Rovers.
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dundalk at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
- L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026
- L1-3Galway United14 September 2026
- L0-2away to Drogheda United11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bohemians28 August 2026
- D0-0Waterford21 August 2026
Dundalk
- L1-2Bohemians2 October 2026
- L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026
- L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026
What these results say
- Sligo Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk
- 31 July 2026Dundalk 1–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 25 April 2026Sligo Rovers 2–0 DundalkPremier Division
- 16 March 2026Dundalk 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 18 July 2025Dundalk 0–2 Sligo RoversFAI Cup
- 21 September 2024Sligo Rovers 2–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 13 June 2024Dundalk 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Sligo Rovers and Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
- C. Kavanagh6 goals2 assists
Dundalk
- D. Horgan10 goals10 assists
- G. Arubi7 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sligo Rovers carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6.15 for Dundalk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.46 for Dundalk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sligo Rovers rate 0.35 in attack and 2.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundalk rate 0.57 and 2.34.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundalk the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sligo Rovers against 1.46 for Dundalk. Sligo Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.35/2.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.34 for Dundalk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sligo Rovers at home · Dundalk away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Sligo Rovers 32, Dundalk 33.
Dundalk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Sligo Rovers have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sligo Rovers
- at Shamrock Rovers23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 17%
- vs Derry City30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 26%
Dundalk
- at Derry City23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 26%
- vs Shamrock Rovers30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.