St Patrick's Athletic
vs
Bohemians
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: St Patrick's Athletic 1–0 Bohemians
The model makes it 47% St Patrick's Athletic, 29% draw, 24% Bohemians — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: St Patrick's Athletic 1.49, Bohemians 0.91.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to St Patrick's Athletic: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- St Patrick's Athletic are 2nd on 59 points from 32 games; Bohemians are 3rd on 59 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- St Patrick's Athletic are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Sligo Rovers.
- Bohemians have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Shamrock Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 Bohemians.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St Patrick's Athletic vs Bohemians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Patrick's Athletic at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into St Patrick's Athletic vs Bohemians
St Patrick's Athletic
- W1-0away to Sligo Rovers19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Dundalk14 September 2026
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers11 September 2026
- L0-2Waterford28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Drogheda United21 August 2026
Bohemians
- L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Dundalk2 October 2026
- W2-1Drogheda United18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
- W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
What these results say
- St Patrick's Athletic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bohemians had three goals or more.
- Bohemians won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 40 | +18 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St Patrick's Athletic vs Bohemians
- 5 September 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 BohemiansFAI Cup
- 26 June 2026Bohemians 2–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 24 April 2026St Patrick's Athletic 3–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 8 February 2026Bohemians 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 20 October 2025Bohemians 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 4 July 2025St Patrick's Athletic 0–0 BohemiansPremier Division
Leading scorers: St Patrick's Athletic and Bohemians
St Patrick's Athletic
GoalsAssists
- A. Keena104
- R. Edmondson101
- K. Leavy63
Bohemians
GoalsAssists
- C. Whelan136
- R. Tierney113
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St Patrick's Athletic carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.35 for Bohemians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for St Patrick's Athletic and 0.91 for Bohemians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Patrick's Athletic rate 0.56 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bohemians rate 0.66 and 1.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St Patrick's Athletic a 10.2% chance of the title and Bohemians 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Patrick's Athletic the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for St Patrick's Athletic against 0.91 for Bohemians. St Patrick's Athletic's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.82 for Bohemians.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St Patrick's Athletic at home · Bohemians away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: St Patrick's Athletic 32, Bohemians 33.
St Patrick's Athletic score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Bohemians have let in 9 there.
Bohemians score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); St Patrick's Athletic have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.