Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
vs
Gimnasia La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–1 Gimnasia La Plata
The model makes it 24% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 31% draw, 45% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 4.17, 3.23 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.79, Gimnasia La Plata 1.27.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Gimnasia La Plata are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are bottom on 6 points from 12 games; Gimnasia La Plata are 4th on 22 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to River Plate.
- Gimnasia La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Huracan.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia La Plata
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia La Plata
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- L0-1away to River Plate11 October 2026
- L1-2Racing Club5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Belgrano Cordoba20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba15 September 2026
- L0-2Sarmiento Junin4 September 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
- W2-1away to Huracan15 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Tucuman9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente Rivadavia3 October 2026
- D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
What these results say
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 6 |
| 4 | Gimnasia La Plata | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 18 April 2026Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and Gimnasia La Plata
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres92
- A. Auzmendi73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.66 for Gimnasia La Plata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.79 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.27 for Gimnasia La Plata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.47 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia La Plata rate 0.92 and 1.36.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto against 1.27 for Gimnasia La Plata. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.36 for Gimnasia La Plata.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home · Gimnasia La Plata away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 27, Gimnasia La Plata 30.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- at Rosario Central8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 11%
Gimnasia La Plata
- vs Belgrano Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.