Sligo Rovers
vs
Derry City
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Sligo Rovers 0–1 Derry City
The model makes it 23% Sligo Rovers, 27% draw, 50% Derry City — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sligo Rovers 0.91, Derry City 1.61.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Derry City are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Sligo Rovers are bottom on 23 points from 33 games; Derry City are 5th on 41 points from 32 games — Premier Division.
- Sligo Rovers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Shelbourne.
- Derry City are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Galway United.
- Last 6 meetings: Derry City 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended Derry City 2–0 Sligo Rovers.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derry City at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sligo Rovers vs Derry City
Sligo Rovers
- L1-5away to Shelbourne9 October 2026
- L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026
- L1-3Galway United14 September 2026
- L0-2away to Drogheda United11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bohemians28 August 2026
Derry City
- W1-0Galway United18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Waterford14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Shelbourne11 September 2026
- D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
- L3-5away to Bohemians21 August 2026
What these results say
- Sligo Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derry City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 59 | -34 | 23 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City
- 7 August 2026Derry City 2–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 6 April 2026Sligo Rovers 0–0 Derry CityPremier Division
- 6 February 2026Derry City 2–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 9 January 2026Sligo Rovers 1–0 Derry CityFriendlies Clubs
- 5 October 2025Derry City 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 12 July 2025Sligo Rovers 2–0 Derry CityPremier Division
Leading scorers: Sligo Rovers and Derry City
Sligo Rovers
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh62
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy105
- J. Clarke63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sligo Rovers carry a model rating of 5.92 against 6.31 for Derry City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.91 goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.61 for Derry City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sligo Rovers rate 0.36 in attack and 2.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Derry City rate 0.59 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derry City the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Sligo Rovers against 1.61 for Derry City. Sligo Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.74 for Derry City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sligo Rovers at home · Derry City away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Sligo Rovers 33, Derry City 32.
Sligo Rovers score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Derry City have let in 11 there.
Derry City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Sligo Rovers have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.