Bohemians
vs
Waterford
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Bohemians 2–1 Waterford
The model makes it 47% Bohemians, 27% draw, 26% Waterford — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bohemians 2.03, Waterford 1.22.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bohemians are 2nd on 59 points from 32 games; Waterford are 8th on 34 points from 32 games — Premier Division.
- Bohemians are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Dundalk.
- Waterford are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Shamrock Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: Bohemians 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Waterford 3–1 Bohemians.
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bohemians vs Waterford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bohemians at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bohemians vs Waterford
Bohemians
- W2-1away to Dundalk2 October 2026
- W2-1Drogheda United18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
- W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
- W5-3Derry City21 August 2026
Waterford
- L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers18 September 2026
- D2-2Derry City14 September 2026
- D1-1Dundalk11 September 2026
- W2-0away to St Patrick's Athletic28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sligo Rovers21 August 2026
What these results say
- Bohemians won every one of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bohemians had three goals or more.
- Waterford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waterford scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bohemians | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 38 | +19 | 59 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bohemians vs Waterford
- 9 August 2026Waterford 3–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 6 April 2026Bohemians 1–1 WaterfordPremier Division
- 6 March 2026Waterford 0–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 30 January 2026Waterford 1–4 BohemiansFriendlies Clubs
- 19 September 2025Bohemians 2–1 WaterfordPremier Division
- 20 June 2025Waterford 2–1 BohemiansPremier Division
Leading scorers: Bohemians and Waterford
Bohemians
- C. Whelan12 goals6 assists
- R. Tierney9 goals3 assists
Waterford
- T. Lonergan14 goals4 assists
- P. Amond9 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bohemians carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.21 for Waterford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Bohemians and 1.22 for Waterford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bohemians rate 0.68 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waterford rate 0.57 and 2.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bohemians a 15.5% chance of the title and Waterford 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bohemians the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Bohemians against 1.22 for Waterford. Bohemians's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.06 for Waterford.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bohemians at home · Waterford away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Bohemians 32, Waterford 32.
Bohemians score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Waterford have let in 15 there.
Waterford score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Bohemians have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bohemians
- vs Shelbourne23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 46%
- at St Patrick's Athletic30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 27%
Waterford
- vs Drogheda United23 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 43%
- at Shelbourne30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.