Slavia Praha vs Lens UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Slavia Praha 2-3 Lens.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Slavia Praha, 28% draw, 30% Lens — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slavia Praha vs Lens
Line-ups
- 35J. MarkovičG
- 27T. VlčekD
- 4D. ZimaD
- 2Š. ChaloupekD
- 14S. IsifeM
- 30W. NowakM
- 23M. SadílekM
- 8O. KubiakM
- 20E. AyaosiM
- 10D. ŠturmM
- 13M. ChytilF
- 25T. ChorýF
- 22T. DiakitéM
- 29N. DomchakG
- 39D. JurásekD
- 32Pavel KacorM
- 45J. KolísekD
- 42M. KonečnýD
- 43Eliáš PitákD
- 40Adam RezekG
- 40R. RisserG
- 32K. AntonioD
- 25I. GaniouD
- 31S. SagnanD
- 22M. SkóraśM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 14M. UdolM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 19A. SimaM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 20J. TodiboD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 7F. SotocaF
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 2R. AguilarD
- 38Mezian MesloubM
- 28J. KadileF
- 24J. GraditD
Form going into Slavia Praha vs Lens
Slavia Praha
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Zbrojovka Brno5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sparta Praha30 August 2026
- D2-2Bohemians 190522 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slovan Liberec16 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice9 August 2026
Lens
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
- W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Praha went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slavia Praha had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Lens won 3–2 at Slavia Praha. The model had leaned towards a win for Slavia Praha at 42% and given a win for Lens 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Danijel Sturm 51' for Slavia Praha, Abdallah Sima 73' for Lens, Danijel Sturm 88' for Slavia Praha, Florian Thauvin 90+1' for Lens, Ruben Aguilar 90+3' for Lens. Sent off: Mikulas Konecny (Slavia Praha) 49'.
How the call on Slavia Praha v Lens has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Slavia Praha's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Slavia Praha win42%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Lens win30%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.