Sheffield Utd
vs
Birmingham
Championship prediction
The model makes it 47% Sheffield Utd, 25% draw, 28% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.66, Birmingham 1.22.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham
- 14 March 2026Birmingham 1–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 20 December 2025Sheffield Utd 3–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 13 August 2025Birmingham 2–1 Sheffield UtdLeague Cup
- 8 May 2023Birmingham 1–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 1 October 2022Sheffield Utd 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 4 February 2022Birmingham 1–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sheffield Utd carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.94 for Birmingham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.22 for Birmingham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sheffield Utd rate 1.14 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Birmingham rate 0.89 and 0.77.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 1.22 for Birmingham. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.77 for Birmingham.