Csikszereda
vs
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 18% Csikszereda, 30% draw, 52% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 5.56, 3.33 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: Csikszereda 0.69, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1.34.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Csikszereda
- L2-3away to Farul Constanta8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Arges Pitesti31 July 2026
- L0-2FCSB26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Corvinul Hunedoara20 July 2026
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- D1-1away to Corvinul Hunedoara2 August 2026
- W1-0Universitatea Cluj26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Rapid20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Csikszereda | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| 10 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Csikszereda carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.52 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Csikszereda L-L-L-L; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe L-W-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.69 goals for Csikszereda and 1.34 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Csikszereda rate 0.34 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.51 and 1.07.
That points to 33% for over two and a half goals and 37% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (17%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Csikszereda against 1.34 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Csikszereda's attack/defence rating is 0.34/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.07 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.