Stoke City vs Swansea Championship prediction & result
Final score: Stoke City 1-2 Swansea.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Stoke City, 23% draw, 47% Swansea — fair odds of 3.33, 4.35 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Swansea at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stoke City vs Swansea
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Viktor JohanssonG
- 16Ben WilmotD
- 18Bosun LawalD
- 5Luke GrahamD
- 17Eric BocatD
- 8Ethan GalbraithM
- 6Svante IngelssonM
- 42Million ManhoefM
- 19Tomáš RigoM
- 7Sorba ThomasM
- 20Sam GallagherF
- 40Maksym TalovierovD
- 27Djibril SoumaréM
- 10Jun-Ho BaeM
- 9Róbert BoženíkF
- 24Joshua GriffithsG
- 23Ben GibsonD
- 43Freddie AndersonD
- 4Ben PearsonM
- 58Tyler MartinF
- 22Lawrence VigourouxG
- 26Filip LissahD
- 5Ben CabangoD
- 23Stephen WelshD
- 14Josh TymonD
- 4Jay FultonM
- 30Joseph OpokuM
- 8Elijah JustM
- 6Marko StamenićM
- 49Moussa Kounfolo YeoM
- 9Žan VipotnikF
- 2Josh KeyD
- 7Melker WidellM
- 10Ji-sung EomF
- 33Adam IdahF
- 1Andrew FisherG
- 50Carter HeywoodD
- 20Tiago ParenteD
- 35RonaldF
- 21Leo WaltaM
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Swansea
- 7 March 2026Swansea 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 13 December 2025Stoke City 2–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 15 February 2025Stoke City 3–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 5 October 2024Swansea 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 10 April 2024Swansea 3–0 Stoke CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Swansea
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Swansea
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Swansea won 2–1 at Stoke City. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Swansea at 47%. The goals: E. Bocat 10' for Stoke City, J. Opoku 23' for Swansea, A. Idah 66' for Swansea. On expected goals it finished 0.63–0.61.