Stoke City
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
The model makes it 31% Stoke City, 22% draw, 47% Swansea — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Stoke City 1.59, Swansea 1.99.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Swansea
- 7 March 2026Swansea 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 13 December 2025Stoke City 2–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 15 February 2025Stoke City 3–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 5 October 2024Swansea 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 10 April 2024Swansea 3–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 12 December 2023Stoke City 1–1 SwanseaChampionship
The two sides
Stoke City carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.97 for Swansea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Stoke City and 1.99 for Swansea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stoke City rate 0.81 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swansea rate 1.29 and 1.04.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stoke City against 1.99 for Swansea. Stoke City's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/1.04 for Swansea.