SHANGHAI SIPG
vs
Qingdao Jonoon
Super League prediction
The model makes it 77% SHANGHAI SIPG, 14% draw, 9% Qingdao Jonoon — fair odds of 1.30, 7.14 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.10, Qingdao Jonoon 1.06.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
SHANGHAI SIPG
- W3-2away to Chongqing Tongliang Long9 August 2026
- L0-1Shandong Luneng1 August 2026
- W2-0Shanghai Shenhua25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Yunnan Yukun17 July 2026
- L1-2away to Qingdao Youth Island4 July 2026
Qingdao Jonoon
- L0-1Shanghai Shenhua8 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island2 August 2026
- L0-2Tianjin Teda25 July 2026
- L1-5away to Henan Jianye17 July 2026
- L2-3away to Hangzhou Greentown14 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
SHANGHAI SIPG carry a model rating of 6.21 against 5.82 for Qingdao Jonoon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SHANGHAI SIPG L-D-W-L-W; Qingdao Jonoon L-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.10 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.06 for Qingdao Jonoon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.58 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Jonoon rate 0.36 and 2.83.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.1 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.06 for Qingdao Jonoon. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.58/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.83 for Qingdao Jonoon.