Regular Season - 4 · 23 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

BSC Young Boys vs FC Vaduz Super League prediction

Stadion Wankdorf, Bern

The model makes it 77% BSC Young Boys, 12% draw, 11% FC Vaduz — fair odds of 1.30, 8.33 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).

Expected goals: BSC Young Boys 3.68, FC Vaduz 1.45.

Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%, under 2.5: 12%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

75%
Both teams to score
88%
Over 2.5 goals
12%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines3-1 7%4-1 7%2-1 6%

Form going into this match

BSC Young Boys

  • D2-2away to Lausanne8 August 2026
  • W6-0away to FC Thun1 August 2026
  • W4-2FC Sion26 July 2026

FC Vaduz

  • L2-3away to FC Sion9 August 2026
  • L2-3FC St. Gallen2 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Lugano26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2BSC Young Boys3210124+87
12FC Vaduz300358-30

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Leading scorers

BSC Young Boys

  • S. Essende4 goals2 assists
  • L. Blum2 goals1 assists
  • K. Imeri1 goals2 assists

FC Vaduz

No league goals recorded yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

BSC Young Boys carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.44 for FC Vaduz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): BSC Young Boys W-W-D; FC Vaduz L-L-L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 3.68 goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.45 for FC Vaduz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

BSC Young Boys rate 1.16 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Vaduz rate 0.73 and 1.68.

That points to 88% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%), 2-1 (6%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.68 expected goals for BSC Young Boys against 1.45 for FC Vaduz. BSC Young Boys's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.68 for FC Vaduz.