Gwangju FC
vs
Incheon United
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 20% Gwangju FC, 29% draw, 51% Incheon United — fair odds of 5.00, 3.45 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Gwangju FC 0.77, Incheon United 1.40.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gwangju FC
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
- L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen2 August 2026
- L1-2Jeju United FC26 July 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 July 2026
- D1-1away to FC Anyang19 July 2026
Incheon United
- D3-3away to Jeju United FC2 August 2026
- D1-1Bucheon FC 199526 July 2026
- W2-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC21 July 2026
- W1-0Jeonbuk Motors18 July 2026
- L0-1FC Anyang12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 47 | -36 | 11 |
| 7 | Incheon United | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gwangju FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša7 goals
- M. Ferrier4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gwangju FC carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.64 for Incheon United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gwangju FC D-D-L-L-D; Incheon United L-W-W-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.77 goals for Gwangju FC and 1.40 for Incheon United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gwangju FC rate 0.38 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Incheon United rate 0.68 and 1.07.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Gwangju FC against 1.4 for Incheon United. Gwangju FC's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.07 for Incheon United.