23 August 2026, 10:30 UTC

Gwangju FC vs Incheon United K League 1 prediction & result

Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Gwangju FC 0-1 Incheon United.

Before kick-off the model made it 13% Gwangju FC, 17% draw, 70% Incheon United — fair odds of 7.69, 5.88 and 1.43.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Incheon United at 70%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gwangju FC3%Draw90%Incheon United7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

João Pedro
22'
🔁T. van Grunsvenout: Min Sang-Gi
53'
55'
Seong-min Kim
58'
🔁Kim Seong-Minout: S. Mugosa
58'
🔁Kim Myung-soonout: Choi Seung-gu
🔁H. Fridjonssonout: Joung Ji-hun
65'
🔁J. Iredaleout: Kim Woo-jin
65'
76'
🔁M. Ferrierout: Leandro Ribeiro
Sung-yun Kwon
78'
🔁Joao Pedroout: Lee Min-Ki
80'
🔁Moon Min-seoout: A. Ba Loua
80'
84'
🔁Gersoout: Lee Dong-Ryul
84'
🔁Lee Chung-Yongout: Lee Min-Hyuk
90'
⚽S. Mugosa (pen)

Line-ups

Gwangju FC 4-4-2
  • 1Kim Kyeong-minG
  • 22Kwon Sung-YunD
  • 4T. van GrunsvenD
  • 6Ahn Young-KyuD
  • 17Joao PedroD
  • 40Shin Chang-MooM
  • 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
  • 37Ri Yong-jikM
  • 88Moon Min-seoM
  • 11H. FridjonssonF
  • 18J. IredaleF
Substitutes
  • 2Jang Seok-HwanD
  • 3Lee Min-Ki
  • 8Ju Se-JongM
  • 14Yu Je-HoM
  • 16Joung Ji-hunM
  • 23Kim Dong-HwaG
  • 39Min Sang-GiD
  • 50A. Ba LouaM
  • 70Kim Woo-jinM
Coach: Jeong-kyu Lee
Incheon United 4-4-2
  • 1Kim Dong-HeonG
  • 32Lee Ju-YongD
  • 2IbizaD
  • 4Kim Gun-HeeD
  • 39Kim Myung-soonD
  • 11GersoM
  • 15Seo Jae-MinM
  • 5Lee Myoung-JooM
  • 17Kim Seong-MinM
  • 99M. FerrierF
  • 72Lee Chung-YongF
Substitutes
  • 3Lee Sang-GiD
  • 9S. MugosaF
  • 10Lee Dong-RyulF
  • 13Choi Seung-guD
  • 20Park Kyung-subD
  • 21Lee Tae-HuiG
  • 26Lee Min-HyukM
  • 30Kim Young-whanM
  • 70Leandro RibeiroF
Coach: Jong-Hwan Yoon

Form going into Gwangju FC vs Incheon United

Gwangju FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026

Incheon United

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Gwangju FC35314183271-3923
6Incheon United351310124437+749

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gwangju FC vs Incheon United

  • 16 May 2026Incheon United 4–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
  • 7 March 2026Gwangju FC 3–2 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 27 October 2024Incheon United 1–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
  • 14 July 2024Gwangju FC 0–2 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 25 May 2024Incheon United 1–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
  • 3 April 2024Gwangju FC 2–3 Incheon UnitedK League 1

Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Incheon United

Gwangju FC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Iredale90

Incheon United

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mugoša111
  • M. Ferrier51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Incheon United won 1–0 at Gwangju FC. The model had made a win for Incheon United its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: S. Mugosa (penalty) 90' for Incheon United.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.