Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Super League prediction & result
Final score: Shenyang Urban 4-4 Henan Jianye.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Shenyang Urban, 19% draw, 14% Henan Jianye — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Shenyang Urban at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Zhang YanG
- 27Gao JiarunD
- 26Yuan MinchengD
- 15FelipeD
- 35Li HaoranD
- 18Li TixiangM
- 7A. KouameM
- 10T. KunimotoM
- 8Yan DinghaoM
- 11Chen BinbinM
- 47JeffinhoF
- 13J. XieG
- 28Xu DongD
- 3Pan XimingD
- 33Tian YinongM
- 36Tian DeaoM
- 5D. MawlanniyazD
- 30Pang ShenghanD
- 34H. ZhangD
- 19Wu MingyuD
- 18Wang GuomingG
- 4Shinar YeljanD
- 2Iago MaidanaD
- 23Lucas MaiaD
- 22Huang RuifengD
- 6Wang ShangyuanM
- 21He ChaoM
- 8Pedro MaranhaoM
- 10Bruno NazarioM
- 7Zhong YihaoM
- 9GustavoF
- 33Shi ChenglongG
- 17Wang JinshuaiG
- 5Liu JiahuiD
- 27Liu YixinD
- 3O. GerbigD
- 24Yin CongyaoF
- 25Yang YilinM
- 16Yang KuoD
- 30Fan XulinM
Form going into Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye
Shenyang Urban
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Sichuan Jiuniu15 August 2026
- L0-1away to Dalian Zhixing8 August 2026
Henan Jianye
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
- D0-0Qingdao Youth Island9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 42 | 58 | -16 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye
- 1 May 2026Henan Jianye 4–0 Shenyang UrbanSuper League
Leading scorers: Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye
Shenyang Urban
GoalsAssists
- Jeffinho122
- G. Mbenza111
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo156
- Bruno Nazário106
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for Shenyang Urban at 67% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Lucas Maia 39' for Henan Jianye, Gustavo 44' for Henan Jianye, Jeffinho 46' for Shenyang Urban, Gustavo 57' for Henan Jianye, Gustavo 60' for Henan Jianye, Zang Yifeng 63' for Shenyang Urban, H. Zhang 69' for Shenyang Urban, T. Kunimoto (penalty) 89' for Shenyang Urban. On expected goals it finished 1.75–1.92.