Chongqing Tongliang Long
vs
Dalian Zhixing
Super League prediction
The model makes it 30% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 25% draw, 45% Dalian Zhixing — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.34, Dalian Zhixing 1.68.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Wuhan Three Towns25 July 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown18 July 2026
- D1-1away to Chengdu Better City11 July 2026
Dalian Zhixing
- W1-0Shenyang Urban8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye31 July 2026
- L2-3away to Hangzhou Greentown26 July 2026
- W3-1Shandong Luneng18 July 2026
- W3-2Wuhan Three Towns4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 29 |
| 3 | Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Chongqing Tongliang Long carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.27 for Dalian Zhixing. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Chongqing Tongliang Long D-D-L-L-L; Dalian Zhixing W-W-L-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.68 for Dalian Zhixing. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.35 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dalian Zhixing rate 0.63 and 2.02.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 0% chance of the title and Dalian Zhixing 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dalian Zhixing the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 1.68 for Dalian Zhixing. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.02 for Dalian Zhixing.