FC Zurich
vs
FC Basel 1893
Super League prediction
The model makes it 31% FC Zurich, 27% draw, 42% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Zurich 1.16, FC Basel 1893 1.40.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Zurich
- L0-5away to FC Lugano9 August 2026
- W2-1Servette FC1 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen26 July 2026
FC Basel 1893
- W4-2FC Thun9 August 2026
- L0-1Lausanne1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Servette FC25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
FC Zurich carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.59 for FC Basel 1893. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Zurich L-W-L; FC Basel 1893 W-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for FC Zurich and 1.40 for FC Basel 1893. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Zurich rate 0.56 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Basel 1893 rate 0.64 and 1.10.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Basel 1893 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Zurich against 1.4 for FC Basel 1893. FC Zurich's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.1 for FC Basel 1893.