18 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Premier Division prediction & result

Tallaght Stadium, Dublin
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Waterford.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Shamrock Rovers, 29% draw, 36% Waterford — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Waterford at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shamrock Rovers96%Draw4%Waterford0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
Graham Coughlan
35'
⚽Evan McLaughlinassist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
Matthew Healy
54'
⚽Aaron Greeneassist: Roberto Lopes
57'
58'
⚽Bernardo Piexoto Coutoassist: Tom Lonergan
🔁William Fitzgeraldout: Tunmise Sobowale
62'
🔁Aaron Greeneout: John McGovern
62'
64'
🔁Evan McLaughlinout: Sam Glenfield
🔁Jack Byrneout: Najemedine Razi
67'
🔁Adam Brennanout: Jake Mulraney
67'
69'
Kevin Long
⚽John McGovernassist: Graham Burke
71'
⚽John McGovernassist: Jake Mulraney
75'
76'
🔁C.Noonanout: jordan faria
76'
🔁Noah Maweneout: Luke Heeney
76'
🔁Jørgen Voilåsout: Jordan Houston
79'
jordan faria
Daniel Cleary
84'
86'
Sam Glenfield
🔁Daniel Clearyout: Cory O'Sullivan
88'
90+1'
John Mahon

Match stats — Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford

69%Possession31%
17Shots13
9On target4
7Corners8

Line-ups

Shamrock Rovers 3-4-2-1
  • 1E. McGintyG
  • 6D. ClearyD
  • 4PicoD
  • 5L. GraceD
  • 24W. FitzgeraldM
  • 8M. HealyM
  • 29J. ByrneM
  • 19A. BrennanM
  • 7D. WattsM
  • 10G. BurkeM
  • 9A. GreeneF
Substitutes
  • 88J. McGovernF
  • 11J. MulraneyM
  • 31M. NoonanF
  • 26John O'SullivanM
  • 27C. O'SullivanD
  • 28N. RaziF
  • 22T. SobowaleD
  • 25L. SteacyG
  • 18J. AfolabiF
Coach: S. Bradley
Waterford 4-4-2
  • 1S. McMullanG
  • 16H. CannD
  • 5J. MahonD
  • 13K. LongD
  • 3Benny CoutoD
  • 20J. VoilåsM
  • 7N. MaweneM
  • 8E. McLaughlinM
  • 10C. NoonanM
  • 9P. AmondF
  • 18T. LonerganF
Substitutes
  • 12B. McKenzieD
  • 17J. FariaM
  • 2J. HoustonD
  • 15L. HeeneyM
  • 19S. GlenfieldM
  • 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
  • 6J. AshtonD
  • 32G. AmeduD
  • 27D. McMenamyM
Coach: G. Coughlan

Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford

Shamrock Rovers

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
  • W2-1Bohemians4 September 2026
  • D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Derry City30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to KuPS27 August 2026

Waterford

Premier Division

  • D2-2Derry City14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Shamrock Rovers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Shamrock Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Shamrock Rovers3520875835+2368
8Waterford35913135159-840

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford

  • 19 June 2026Waterford 0–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 1 May 2026Shamrock Rovers 1–0 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 3 April 2026Waterford 1–1 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 22 September 2025Waterford 1–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 27 June 2025Shamrock Rovers 1–0 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 16 May 2025Waterford 1–3 Shamrock RoversPremier Division

Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Waterford

Shamrock Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGovern107
  • G. Burke84

Waterford

GoalsAssists

  • T. Lonergan156
  • P. Amond131

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Waterford at 36% and given a win for Shamrock Rovers 35%. The goals: Evan McLaughlin 35' for Waterford, Aaron Greene 57' for Shamrock Rovers, Bernardo Piexoto Couto 58' for Waterford, John McGovern 71' for Shamrock Rovers, John McGovern 75' for Shamrock Rovers.

How the call on Shamrock Rovers v Waterford has moved

First published on 4 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Shamrock Rovers's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Shamrock Rovers win35%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Waterford win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.