Shamrock Rovers
vs
Waterford
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Shamrock Rovers 1–2 Waterford
The model makes it 35% Shamrock Rovers, 29% draw, 36% Waterford — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.44, Waterford 1.45.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Shamrock Rovers wins, grey are draws, red are Waterford wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waterford at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
- D3-3away to Derry City30 August 2026
- W3-2Dundalk7 August 2026
- D0-0away to Drogheda United31 July 2026
Waterford
- D2-2Derry City14 September 2026
- D1-1Dundalk11 September 2026
- W2-0away to St Patrick's Athletic28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sligo Rovers21 August 2026
- W3-1Bohemians9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 29 | +17 | 56 |
| 8 | Waterford | 31 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
- G. Burke7 goals1 assists
- M. Noonan6 goals
- J. McGovern5 goals5 assists
Waterford
- T. Lonergan14 goals3 assists
- P. Amond9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shamrock Rovers carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.29 for Waterford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.45 for Waterford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shamrock Rovers rate 0.45 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waterford rate 0.63 and 1.97.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shamrock Rovers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shamrock Rovers a 61% chance of the title and Waterford 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waterford the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers against 1.45 for Waterford. Shamrock Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.97 for Waterford.