Central Cordoba de Santiago
vs
Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 Defensa Y Justicia
The model makes it 31% Central Cordoba de Santiago, 29% draw, 40% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Central Cordoba de Santiago 1.17, Defensa Y Justicia 1.47.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Defensa Y Justicia
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Central Cordoba de Santiago wins, grey are draws, red are Defensa Y Justicia wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Defensa Y Justicia
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- L1-3away to Boca Juniors12 September 2026
- L0-1Independiente6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Tigre24 August 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba16 August 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
- W1-0Platense31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 3 | Defensa Y Justicia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 12 March 2026Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2025Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 February 2025Defensa Y Justicia 2–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 August 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 February 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 24 September 2023Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–1 Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Central Cordoba de Santiago and Defensa Y Justicia
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- M. Santos7 goals2 assists
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Central Cordoba de Santiago carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.72 for Defensa Y Justicia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago and 1.47 for Defensa Y Justicia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Central Cordoba de Santiago rate 0.68 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Defensa Y Justicia rate 0.82 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Central Cordoba de Santiago a 0% chance of the title and Defensa Y Justicia 11.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Defensa Y Justicia the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago against 1.47 for Defensa Y Justicia. Central Cordoba de Santiago's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.06 for Defensa Y Justicia.