Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 KFUM Oslo
The model makes it 43% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 29% draw, 28% KFUM Oslo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.63, KFUM Oslo 1.11.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sarpsborg 08 FF wins, grey are draws, red are KFUM Oslo wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
KFUM Oslo
- W2-1Aalesund13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Molde6 September 2026
- L1-4away to Start30 August 2026
- D1-1Lillestrom15 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sandefjord7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo
- 26 April 2026KFUM Oslo 1–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 25 October 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 21 April 2025KFUM Oslo 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 23 February 2025KFUM Oslo 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
- 3 November 2024KFUM Oslo 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 21 April 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D. Karlsbakk6 goals
KFUM Oslo
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.45 for KFUM Oslo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.11 for KFUM Oslo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.68 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KFUM Oslo rate 0.66 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.11 for KFUM Oslo. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.47 for KFUM Oslo.