Derry City vs Galway United Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Derry City 1-0 Galway United.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Derry City, 27% draw, 26% Galway United — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derry City at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derry City vs Galway United
Line-ups
- 13Tom NorcottG
- 23C. DummiganD
- 4J. StottD
- 3Patrick McCleanD
- 12D. BurnsM
- 17N. TwiskM
- 8A. O'ReillyM
- 19B. FlemingM
- 14E. ChapmanF
- 29T. SmithF
- 7M. DuffyF
- 27L. BoyceF
- 28J. OlayinkaM
- 22C. BarrD
- 15J. ClarkeM
- 25Christy GroganD
- 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
- 1B. MaherG
- 21Kévin SantosM
- 11G. WhyteM
- 16Hugo Alberto Pires da CunhaG
- 15O. WilliamsD
- 2A. O'ConnorD
- 12Gianfranco FacchineriD
- 3Connor BarrattM
- 8A. BolgerM
- 10D. HurleyM
- 4J. KeohaneM
- 20L. DevittM
- 11K. TwardekF
- 7S. WalshF
- 32Vincent AngeliniG
- 21D. ConnollyF
- 30A. KazeemD
- 9F. LombotoF
- 28J. MorahanD
- 23F. PierrotF
- 17Junior ThiamM
- 54C. WhittakerM
Form going into Derry City vs Galway United
Derry City
Premier Division
- D2-2away to Waterford14 September 2026
Galway United
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Sligo Rovers14 September 2026
- L2-3Bohemians11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Derry City | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 47 |
| 6 | Galway United | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derry City vs Galway United
- 19 June 2026Galway United 2–1 Derry CityPremier Division
- 4 May 2026Derry City 1–1 Galway UnitedPremier Division
- 3 April 2026Galway United 2–1 Derry CityPremier Division
- 22 August 2025Galway United 1–2 Derry CityPremier Division
- 13 June 2025Derry City 1–1 Galway UnitedPremier Division
- 18 April 2025Galway United 2–3 Derry CityPremier Division
Leading scorers: Derry City and Galway United
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy115
- J. Clarke73
Galway United
GoalsAssists
- K. Twardek86
- J. Keohane73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Derry City beat Galway United 1–0. The model had made a win for Derry City its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Adam O'Reilly 45+1' for Derry City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.