Dundalk vs Shelbourne Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Dundalk 2-3 Shelbourne.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Dundalk, 29% draw, 33% Shelbourne — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dundalk at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundalk vs Shelbourne
Line-ups
- 1E. MinogueG
- 31J. WilsonD
- 4M. AnimasahunD
- 44T. GrivostiD
- 3B. BurnsD
- 18K. BuckleyM
- 6A. DervinM
- 15T. ClarkeM
- 11R. TeahanM
- 7D. HorganM
- 9C. DillonF
- 13P. CherrieG
- 14Norman GarbettM
- 10Leonardo GaxhaF
- 8H. GroomeM
- 27D. McDaidM
- 12L. MulliganD
- 17S. TraceyM
- 16E. VasseninD
- 5H. WarrenD
- 19E. BeachG
- 25M. MbengD
- 16O. CaseyD
- 4K. LedwidgeD
- 18James Barry NorrisD
- 17D. KellyM
- 23K. McInroyM
- 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
- 27E. CaffreyM
- 22S. MooreF
- 11M. OdubekoF
- 55James RocheD
- 44Daniel RingF
- 36W. JarvisM
- 56J. WunaF
- 20R. FreitasF
- 14A. CooteM
- 9S. BoydF
- 15S. BoneD
- 31C. WalshG
Form going into Dundalk vs Shelbourne
Dundalk
Premier Division
- L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
Shelbourne
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Drogheda United14 September 2026
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D2-2Ajax13 August 2026
- L1-3away to Ajax6 August 2026
What these results say
- Shelbourne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dundalk | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 42 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundalk vs Shelbourne
- 3 July 2026Shelbourne 2–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 1 May 2026Dundalk 1–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 3 April 2026Shelbourne 2–3 DundalkPremier Division
- 20 January 2026Shelbourne 2–1 DundalkFriendlies Clubs
- 30 August 2024Dundalk 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
Leading scorers: Dundalk and Shelbourne
Dundalk
GoalsAssists
- D. Horgan1110
- G. Arubi73
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- D. Kelly84
- J. Martin82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shelbourne won 3–2 at Dundalk. The model had leaned towards a win for Dundalk at 38% and given a win for Shelbourne 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: ronan teahan 12' for Dundalk, Sean Moore 39' for Shelbourne, Declan McDaid 71' for Dundalk, Sean Boyd 80' for Shelbourne, Sean Boyd 90' for Shelbourne. Sent off: shane tracey (Dundalk) 85'.
How the call on Dundalk v Shelbourne has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Dundalk's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Dundalk win38%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Shelbourne win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.