20 August 2026, 17:45 UTC

PAOK vs Brann UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Full time1 – 1

Final score: PAOK 1-1 Brann.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% PAOK, 22% draw, 31% Brann — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAOK at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAOK6%Draw90%Brann4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
🔁A. Mythouout: C. Ndiaye
56'
57'
⚽K. Eriksenassist: J. Soltvedt
58'
Bård Finne
62'
Joachim Soltvedt
Christos Zafeiris
63'
🔁D. Giannoulisout: A. Baba
65'
🔁B. Santamariaout: G. Taylor
65'
🔁Taisonout: T. Louchet
65'
🔁M. Camaraout: S. Shoretire
77'
⚽A. Babaassist: T. Louchet
80'
86'
🔁T. Pedersenout: K. Kjartansson
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
90+3'
90+3'
🔁B. Finneout: L. Remmem

Match stats — PAOK vs Brann

43%Possession57%
23Shots6
6On target1
8Corners3

Line-ups

PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PavlenkaG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 6A. ElustondoD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 13D. GiannoulisD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 7B. SantamariaM
  • 52D. ChatsidisM
  • 2M. CamaraM
  • 11TaisonM
  • 56A. MythouF
Substitutes
  • 99A. TsiftsisG
  • 54K. BalomenosG
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 25K. ThymianisD
  • 18JogoD
  • 97D. BataoulasD
  • 32G. TaylorD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 10D. PelkasM
Coach: Alessio Lisci
Brann 4-3-3
  • 1M. DyngelandG
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 3F. KnudsenD
  • 20V. DragsnesD
  • 17J. SoltvedtD
  • 23T. PedersenM
  • 18J. SorensenM
  • 25N. WassbergM
  • 16K. EriksenF
  • 11B. FinneF
  • 19E. GudmundssonF
Substitutes
  • 12S. NilsenG
  • 36H. M. HellesoyG
  • 6D. MbackeD
  • 41L. RemmemM
  • 37S. VindenesM
  • 43B. HaugenM
  • 7K. KjartanssonM
  • 39J. LaegreidF
Coach: Eirik Horneland

Form going into PAOK vs Brann

PAOK

  • L2-3away to Anderlecht13 August 2026
  • L0-1Anderlecht6 August 2026
  • W2-0Dynamo Kyiv30 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Dynamo Kyiv23 July 2026

Brann

  • W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026

What these results say

  • PAOK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • PAOK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

PAOK and Brann in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
2PAOKSuper League 15401125+712
7BrannEliteserien2192103932+729

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League 1 · Eliteserien

Leading scorers: PAOK and Brann

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists
  • S. Shoretire2 goals

Brann

  • N. Holm6 goals3 assists
  • K. Ingason6 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.