Racing Santander vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Racing Santander, 17% draw, 34% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.04, 5.88 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Racing Santander at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Santander vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Alvaro MantillaD
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 8Gustavo PuertaM
- 36Sergio MartinezM
- 11Andrés MartínM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 12Asier VillalibreF
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 1Simon ErikssonG
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 30Carlos SánchezD
- 14Maguette GueyeM
- 29Andrés VallecilloM
- 34Diego DíazM
- 38Hugo MartínM
- 33Jorge CastellanosM
- 1Luiz JúniorG
- 15Santiago MouriñoD
- 8Juan FoythD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 19Nicolas PépéM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 18Pape GueyeM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 9Georges MikautadzeF
- 26Carlos MaciáM
- 17Tajon BuchananF
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 25Péter GulácsiG
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 5Willy KambwalaD
- 3Alexander FreemanD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 2Logan CostaD
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Villarreal
- 17 December 2025Racing Santander 2–1 VillarrealCopa del Rey
- 15 April 2012Villarreal 1–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 3 December 2011Racing Santander 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 27 February 2011Racing Santander 2–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 3 October 2010Villarreal 2–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Villarreal
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Racing Santander and Villarreal drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Racing Santander at 49% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: A. Martin (penalty) 21' for Racing Santander, S. Martinez 34' for Racing Santander, P. Gueye 45' for Villarreal, N. Pepe 45+1' for Villarreal. On expected goals it finished 2.01–0.87.