Espanyol
vs
Levante
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 32% Espanyol, 23% draw, 45% Levante — fair odds of 3.13, 4.35 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Espanyol 1.58, Levante 1.92.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Levante
- 27 April 2026Espanyol 0–0 LevanteLa Liga
- 11 January 2026Levante 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 4 February 2024Espanyol 2–1 LevanteSegunda División
- 8 September 2023Levante 1–4 EspanyolSegunda División
- 12 March 2022Levante 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 11 December 2021Espanyol 4–3 LevanteLa Liga
The two sides
Espanyol carry a model rating of 6.75 against 7 for Levante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Espanyol and 1.92 for Levante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Espanyol rate 0.89 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levante rate 1.27 and 0.94.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levante the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Espanyol against 1.92 for Levante. Espanyol's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/0.94 for Levante.