Alaves
vs
Getafe
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 49% Alaves, 28% draw, 23% Getafe — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alaves 1.47, Getafe 0.93.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Getafe
- 8 February 2026Alaves 0–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 24 September 2025Getafe 1–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 9 February 2025Alaves 0–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 28 September 2024Getafe 2–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 18 May 2024Alaves 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 28 August 2023Getafe 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alaves carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.88 for Getafe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Alaves and 0.93 for Getafe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alaves rate 1.00 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Getafe rate 0.78 and 0.78.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alaves the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Alaves against 0.93 for Getafe. Alaves's attack/defence rating is 1/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/0.78 for Getafe.