Alaves vs Getafe La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Alaves, 28% draw, 23% Getafe — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Alaves at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Getafe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17Jonny OttoD
- 7A. PerezM
- 19P. IbanezM
- 8A. BlancoM
- 4D. SuarezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 11T. MartinezF
- 20A. Manas
- 13A. RodriguezG
- 31G. SwiderskiG
- 3YusiD
- 24M. DiarraD
- 12H. Novoa RamosF
- 18M. Rodriguez
- 10C. AlenaM
- 23C. ProtesoniM
- 6A. GuevaraM
- 13D. SoriaG
- 2DjeneD
- 5A. AbqarD
- 24Z. RomeroD
- 17Kiko FemeniaM
- 11R. TerratsM
- 23O. MangalaM
- 6M. MartinM
- 3DavinchiM
- 21A. GarciaF
- 10M. SatrianoF
- 1J. LetacekG
- 35D. FerrerG
- 26J. ValouD
- 22J. MojicaD
- 4S. SazonovD
- 15S. BoselliD
- 28A. R. AlcantaraM
- 19E. UnalF
- 9B. MayoralF
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Getafe
- 8 February 2026Alaves 0–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 24 September 2025Getafe 1–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 9 February 2025Alaves 0–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 28 September 2024Getafe 2–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 18 May 2024Alaves 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
Leading scorers: Alaves and Getafe
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alaves beat Getafe 3–0. The model had made a win for Alaves its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: N. Tenaglia 73' for Alaves, M. Diaz 90' for Alaves, M. Rodriguez 90' for Alaves. Sent off: Kiko Femenía (Getafe) 42'. On expected goals it finished 1.83–0.24.