Sevilla
vs
Osasuna
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Sevilla 2–1 Osasuna
The model makes it 52% Sevilla, 25% draw, 23% Osasuna — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.87, Osasuna 1.04.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Sevilla: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Sevilla are 5th on 14 points from 8 games; Osasuna are 16th on 8 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Sevilla have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Levante.
- Osasuna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat away to Real Betis.
- Last 6 meetings: Osasuna 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Osasuna 2–1 Sevilla.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sevilla vs Osasuna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sevilla at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sevilla vs Osasuna
Sevilla
- D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026
- L1-3Barcelona19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
Osasuna
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Osasuna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Osasuna
- 26 April 2026Osasuna 2–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 8 November 2025Sevilla 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 24 April 2025Osasuna 1–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 2 December 2024Sevilla 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 28 January 2024Sevilla 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 23 September 2023Osasuna 0–0 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Sevilla and Osasuna
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sevilla carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.67 for Osasuna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Sevilla and 1.04 for Osasuna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sevilla rate 0.96 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Osasuna rate 0.84 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sevilla the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sevilla against 1.04 for Osasuna. Sevilla's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.2 for Osasuna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sevilla at home · Osasuna away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SevillaOsasuna
Sevilla are 5th after 8 La Liga matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Osasuna are 15th after 8 (between 4th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Sevilla 8, Osasuna 8.
Sevilla score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Osasuna have let in 3 there.
Osasuna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Sevilla have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sevilla
- at Getafe1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- vs Alaves6 Nov · La Ligawin 43%
- vs Real Betis22 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
- at Real Sociedad29 Nov · La Ligawin 26%
Osasuna
- at Deportivo La Coruna2 Nov · La Ligawin 22%
- vs Athletic Club7 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Malaga22 Nov · La Ligawin 47%
- at Valencia29 Nov · La Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.