Sevilla vs Barcelona La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sevilla 1-3 Barcelona.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Sevilla, 29% draw, 44% Barcelona — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sevilla vs Barcelona
Line-ups
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 12A. SanganteD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 30M. SierraM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 9R. UreF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 14Manu BuenoM
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 21C. EjukeF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 23MarcãoD
- 34Iker Ortín MuñozD
- 25D. LivakovićG
- 24Eric GarcíaD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 15A. ChristensenD
- 2João CanceloD
- 7FermínM
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 17A. GordonF
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 12X. EspartD
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 6GaviM
- 23J. KoundéD
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 20Dani OlmoM
Form going into Sevilla vs Barcelona
Sevilla
La Liga
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
Barcelona
La Liga
- W7-2Racing Santander16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 11 | +29 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Barcelona
- 15 March 2026Barcelona 5–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 5 October 2025Sevilla 4–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 9 February 2025Sevilla 1–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 20 October 2024Barcelona 5–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 26 May 2024Sevilla 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Sevilla and Barcelona
Sevilla
GoalsAssists
- Isaac31
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha133
- Lamine Yamal86
- Fermín43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barcelona won 3–1 at Sevilla. The model had made a win for Barcelona its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Youssouf Fofana 19' for Sevilla, Raphael Dias Belloli 22' for Barcelona, Raphael Dias Belloli 52' for Barcelona, Raphael Dias Belloli 69' for Barcelona.
How the call on Sevilla v Barcelona has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 12 updates, it read 27% / 29% / 44%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Sevilla win27%▼ −1
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Barcelona win44%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.