Sevilla
vs
Barcelona
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Sevilla 1–2 Barcelona
The model makes it 27% Sevilla, 27% draw, 46% Barcelona — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.26, Barcelona 1.96.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sevilla vs Barcelona
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sevilla wins, grey are draws, red are Barcelona wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sevilla vs Barcelona
Sevilla
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
Barcelona
- W4-2away to Levante13 September 2026
- W5-0away to Valencia6 September 2026
- W5-2Rayo Vallecano31 August 2026
- W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026
- W5-0away to Elche23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Barcelona
- 15 March 2026Barcelona 5–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 5 October 2025Sevilla 4–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 9 February 2025Sevilla 1–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 20 October 2024Barcelona 5–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 26 May 2024Sevilla 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 29 September 2023Barcelona 1–0 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Sevilla and Barcelona
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Barcelona
- Raphinha6 goals3 assists
- Lamine Yamal6 goals
- Fermín4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sevilla carry a model rating of 6.85 against 7.24 for Barcelona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Sevilla and 1.96 for Barcelona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sevilla rate 0.92 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barcelona rate 1.77 and 0.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sevilla against 1.96 for Barcelona. Sevilla's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.77/0.84 for Barcelona.