Eintracht Frankfurt
vs
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 SC Freiburg
The model makes it 36% Eintracht Frankfurt, 31% draw, 33% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.17, SC Freiburg 1.10.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Eintracht Frankfurt wins, grey are draws, red are SC Freiburg wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
- W3-1away to FSV Mainz 0512 September 2026
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
SC Freiburg
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 |
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
- 1 March 2026Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 19 October 2025SC Freiburg 2–2 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 17 May 2025SC Freiburg 1–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 14 January 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 4–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 18 February 2024SC Freiburg 3–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 6 January 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 2–5 SC FreiburgFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
- Y. Ebnoutalib3 goals1 assists
- J. Burkardt2 goals1 assists
- C. Uzun2 goals
SC Freiburg
- I. Matanović3 goals1 assists
- Y. Suzuki3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Eintracht Frankfurt carry a model rating of 6.91 against 7.03 for SC Freiburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.10 for SC Freiburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eintracht Frankfurt rate 0.95 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Freiburg rate 1.07 and 0.76.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SC Freiburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.1 for SC Freiburg. Eintracht Frankfurt's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.76 for SC Freiburg.