VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% VfB Stuttgart, 28% draw, 38% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Line-ups
- 1F. BredlowG
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 24J. ChabotD
- 7M. MittelstädtD
- 4J. VagnomanM
- 21G. PrömelM
- 6A. StillerM
- 10C. FührichM
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 26D. UndavM
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 28N. NarteyM
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 44L. SauerF
- 2A. Al DakhilD
- 33M. FunkG
- 3R. HendriksD
- 47Y. SpaltD
- 16A. KarazorM
- 18J. LewelingF
- 1G. KobelG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 14M. BeierM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 40S. InacioF
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 33A. MeyerG
- 49L. ReggianiD
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 21Fábio SilvaF
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 5R. BensebaïniD
Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
- W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
- 4 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 22 November 2025Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 8 February 2025Borussia Dortmund 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 22 September 2024VfB Stuttgart 5–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 6 April 2024Borussia Dortmund 0–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović30
Borussia Dortmund
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund won 1–0 at VfB Stuttgart. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Maximilian Beier 70' for Borussia Dortmund.
How the call on VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is VfB Stuttgart's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- VfB Stuttgart win34%▼ −5
- Draw28%=
- Borussia Dortmund win38%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.