VfB Stuttgart
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
The model makes it 34% VfB Stuttgart, 28% draw, 38% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.48, Borussia Dortmund 1.67.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are VfB Stuttgart wins, grey are draws, red are Borussia Dortmund wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
- L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026
Borussia Dortmund
- W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
- 4 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 22 November 2025Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 8 February 2025Borussia Dortmund 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 22 September 2024VfB Stuttgart 5–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 6 April 2024Borussia Dortmund 0–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 6 December 2023VfB Stuttgart 2–0 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
- J. Vagnoman2 goals1 assists
Borussia Dortmund
- S. Guirassy2 goals2 assists
- F. Nmecha2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VfB Stuttgart carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.08 for Borussia Dortmund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.67 for Borussia Dortmund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfB Stuttgart rate 1.11 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Dortmund rate 1.31 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart against 1.67 for Borussia Dortmund. VfB Stuttgart's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/0.82 for Borussia Dortmund.