Celta Vigo
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 1–2 Racing Santander
The model makes it 35% Celta Vigo, 29% draw, 36% Racing Santander — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.45, Racing Santander 1.48.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Celta Vigo wins, grey are draws, red are Racing Santander wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Santander at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
Racing Santander
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
- 5 January 2025Racing Santander 2–3 Celta VigoCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.87 for Racing Santander. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.48 for Racing Santander. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 0.84 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Santander rate 1.10 and 1.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Santander the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.48 for Racing Santander. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.06 for Racing Santander.