Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 5-0 Racing Santander.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Celta Vigo, 29% draw, 38% Racing Santander — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Santander at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 1A. BayındırG
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 7Borja IglesiasF
- 22Javi GalánD
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 4A. FayeD
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Álvaro MantillaD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 8André AlmeidaM
- 15Pablo GarcíaM
- 23Iván MartínM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 19Iker LuqueM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 14M. GueyeM
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 31Laro GómezG
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 9Juan Carlos AranaF
- 7G. GuliashviliF
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 22Pedro FelipeD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
La Liga
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
Racing Santander
La Liga
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
- 5 January 2025Racing Santander 2–3 Celta VigoCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta Vigo beat Racing Santander 5–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Racing Santander at 38% and given a win for Celta Vigo 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Hugo González (penalty) 32' for Celta Vigo, Ilaix Moriba 43' for Celta Vigo, Miguel Roman 69' for Celta Vigo, Pablo Durán Fernández 78' for Celta Vigo, Pablo Durán Fernández 90+2' for Celta Vigo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.