Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Osasuna, 27% draw, 39% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rayo Vallecano at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Line-ups
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 29Asier OsambelaD
- 24CatenaD
- 35U. SantosD
- 15Diego RicoD
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 11Kike BarjaM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 30Asier BonelF
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 18Raul MoroF
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 8Unai LópezM
- 6P. CissM
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 20I. BalliuD
- 37Rayane BelidF
- 36G. BouareM
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 21Fran PérezF
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
Form going into Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
La Liga
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- W2-1Espanyol15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
- 24 January 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–3 OsasunaLa Liga
- 14 September 2025Osasuna 2–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 19 January 2025Osasuna 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 16 September 2024Rayo Vallecano 3–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 20 April 2024Rayo Vallecano 2–1 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir70
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello71
- Álvaro García32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rayo Vallecano at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ante Budimir 16' for Osasuna, Sergio Camello 50' for Rayo Vallecano.
How the call on Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Osasuna's chance of winning, down 12 points.
- Osasuna win34%▼ −12
- Draw27%=
- Rayo Vallecano win39%▲ +12
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.