Espanyol vs Elche La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Espanyol 1-3 Elche.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Espanyol, 29% draw, 27% Elche — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Espanyol at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Espanyol vs Elche
Line-ups
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 32J. A. LopezD
- 14Unai NúñezD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 22Álex CalatravaM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 15Bryan ZaragozaM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 11Pere MillaM
- 5C. RiedelD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 24T. DolanF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 18T. LemarM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 11Germán ValeraF
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 20Tete MorenteF
- 6BigasD
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 19G. DianganaF
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 17JosanM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 24A. OsorioF
Form going into Espanyol vs Elche
Espanyol
La Liga
- L1-2away to Rayo Vallecano15 September 2026
Elche
La Liga
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Elche
- 1 March 2026Elche 2–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 25 October 2025Espanyol 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 27 April 2024Elche 2–2 EspanyolSegunda División
- 18 November 2023Espanyol 2–0 ElcheSegunda División
- 19 February 2023Elche 0–1 EspanyolLa Liga
Leading scorers: Espanyol and Elche
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Elche won 3–1 at Espanyol. The model had leaned towards a win for Espanyol at 44% and given a win for Elche 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Fernando Niño Rodríguez 26' for Elche, Fernando Niño Rodríguez 29' for Elche, Víctor Chust (own goal) 72' for Espanyol, Germán Valera 78' for Elche. Sent off: Federico Redondo Solari (Elche) 6'.
How the call on Espanyol v Elche has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Espanyol's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Espanyol win44%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Elche win27%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.