Athletic Club vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Athletic Club, 29% draw, 26% Alaves — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Alaves
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 25Álvaro DjalóF
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 7Álex BerenguerF
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 17JonnyD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 21A. RebbachD
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 6GuevaraM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 9M. DíazF
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 3YusiD
- 29Izei HernándezF
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 27X. OlaizD
- 7Angel PérezD
- 13A. GiménezG
Form going into Athletic Club vs Alaves
Athletic Club
La Liga
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
Alaves
La Liga
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Alaves
- 2 May 2026Alaves 2–4 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 13 September 2025Athletic Club 0–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 22 July 2025Alaves 1–0 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
- 11 May 2025Athletic Club 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 15 December 2024Alaves 1–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Alaves
Athletic Club
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club and Alaves drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Athletic Club at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Athletic Club v Alaves has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Athletic Club's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Athletic Club win45%▲ +9
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Alaves win26%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.