10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica Super Liga prediction & result

Belgrade
Full time1 – 0

Final score: IMT Novi Beograd 1-0 Radnik Surdulica.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% IMT Novi Beograd, 29% draw, 24% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

IMT Novi Beograd at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IMT Novi Beograd97%Draw3%Radnik Surdulica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Karl Kezy Fabienassist: nikola glisic
21'
23'
Miloš Popović
🔁Karl Kezy Fabienout: Vladimir Radocaj
23'
23'
🔁Uros Filipovicout: Filip Zunic
27'
Filip Zunic
33'
Lazar Radojičić
vasilije novicic
34'
45'
🔁Emmanuel Quarshieout: Luka Jovanović
🔁Aleksandar Sedlarout: Andrej Milanović
54'
🔁Charly Keitaout: Daniel Aghahowa
55'
60'
🔁Milos Spasicout: Djordje Jovanovic
60'
🔁Aleksandar Pejovićout: Darko Stojanović
Moussa Sissako
65'
Josué Tiendrébéogo
69'
76'
🔁Uros Lazicout: Otabek Shukurov
🔁nikola glisicout: François Kamano
80'
🔁Josué Tiendrébéogoout: Ibrahima Kebe
80'

Match stats — IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica

46%Possession54%
13Shots10
6On target3
3Corners7
1.31xG1.08

Goals against chances

IMT Novi Beograd1 from 1.31 xGabout what the chances were worth
Radnik Surdulica0 from 1.08 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. ČančarevićG
  • 2Julián DelmásD
  • 15A. SedlarD
  • 5M. SissakoD
  • 45Ismael CasasD
  • 18W. TiendrébéogoM
  • 22Vasilije NovicicM
  • 29K. FabienM
  • 19T. CojicM
  • 7N. GlišićM
  • 99C. KeitaF
Substitutes
  • 12Kadir GicicG
  • 40F. KamanoF
  • 14I. KebeM
  • 27V. RadočajM
  • 20D. RadivojevicF
  • 28A. MilanovicD
  • 23D. AkrofiM
  • 37Daniel AghahowaF
  • 24Luka GuticD
Coach: Z. Popović
Radnik Surdulica 4-2-3-1
  • 99S. RandjelovicG
  • 22U. LazićD
  • 6David StojanovićD
  • 37S. AbubakarD
  • 21U. FilipovicD
  • 5M. PopovićM
  • 28A. PejovićM
  • 47Emmanuel QuarshieM
  • 30M. NovakovićM
  • 27M. SpasićM
  • 9V. BogdanovićF
Substitutes
  • 3Luka ŽorićD
  • 18F. ŽunićD
  • 29O. ShukurovM
  • 23Lazar RadojicicG
  • 7D. StojanovićM
  • 25Teo LakićF
  • 92A. KosiahF
  • 88Đ. JovanovićF
  • 34Nikša BlagojevićD
Coach: Zoran Rendulic

Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica

IMT Novi Beograd

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Vojvodina19 September 2026
  • L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
  • W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Radnicki 192322 August 2026

Radnik Surdulica

All competitions we cover

  • D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
  • D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
  • W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Železničar Pančevo29 August 2026

What these results say

  • IMT Novi Beograd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • IMT Novi Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • IMT Novi Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Radnik Surdulica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Radnik Surdulica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Radnik Surdulica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4IMT Novi Beograd156541610+623
6Radnik Surdulica156542018+223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica

  • 2 March 2026IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 29 October 2025Radnik Surdulica 0–1 IMT Novi BeogradCup
  • 26 September 2025Radnik Surdulica 2–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 1 May 2024IMT Novi Beograd 5–2 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga

Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica

IMT Novi Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • C. Keita32

Radnik Surdulica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Bogdanović61
  • M. Novaković33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

IMT Novi Beograd beat Radnik Surdulica 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for IMT Novi Beograd at 47%. The goal: Karl Kezy Fabien 21' for IMT Novi Beograd. On expected goals it finished 1.31–1.08.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave IMT Novi Beograd a 41.6% chance to finish in the top four: 49.0% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.0%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.

For Radnik Surdulica the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 12.3% going in: 19.1% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 8.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.3%, 4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is IMT Novi Beograd's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. IMT Novi Beograd win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Radnik Surdulica win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.