IMT Novi Beograd
vs
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica
The model makes it 44% IMT Novi Beograd, 30% draw, 26% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.50, Radnik Surdulica 0.92.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 44% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica
IMT Novi Beograd
- D1-1away to Vojvodina19 September 2026
- L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda13 September 2026
- D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
- W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Radnicki 192322 August 2026
Radnik Surdulica
- D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
- D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
- W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Železničar Pančevo29 August 2026
What these results say
- IMT Novi Beograd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- IMT Novi Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- IMT Novi Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Surdulica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Surdulica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Surdulica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica
- 2 March 2026IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 29 October 2025Radnik Surdulica 0–1 IMT Novi BeogradCup
- 26 September 2025Radnik Surdulica 2–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 1 May 2024IMT Novi Beograd 5–2 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 16 March 2024Radnik Surdulica 0–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica
IMT Novi Beograd
- C. Keita2 goals2 assists
- T. Cojic2 goals2 assists
Radnik Surdulica
- V. Bogdanović5 goals
- M. Novaković2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
IMT Novi Beograd carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.2 for Radnik Surdulica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.92 for Radnik Surdulica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.48 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnik Surdulica rate 0.53 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IMT Novi Beograd a 0.2% chance of the title and Radnik Surdulica 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 0.92 for Radnik Surdulica. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.94 for Radnik Surdulica.