Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Radnicki 1923 0-3 FK Crvena Zvezda.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Radnicki 1923, 27% draw, 49% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FK Crvena Zvezda at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81L. LijeskiÄG
- 7B. NikčevićD
- 5Nikola MarjanovićD
- 6H. HiloD
- 8M. KuzmanovićD
- 27M. RistićM
- 70J. ŽivkovićM
- 35N. GlavčićM
- 19D. BuchtaM
- 10M. CisséM
- 77Issa BahF
- 28S. AlićM
- 29António Pina GomesF
- 80J. IlićM
- 2M. MezghraniM
- 4N. MiličićD
- 1M. ŠahinovićG
- 99A. SuljićF
- 25T. UdeD
- 16Vanja TomićM
- 1MatheusG
- 3Y. NakayamaD
- 45S. GudeljD
- 32D. LuckassenD
- 20Tomás HändelM
- 21T. ElšnikM
- 60M. GashtarovM
- 23M. RistićM
- 70M. ChamF
- 9B. DiengF
- 22V. KostovF
- 7M. ArnautovićF
- 30F. Tebo UchennaD
- 27M. StrikaD
- 37V. LučićM
- 33R. KrunićM
- 14O. BukariF
- 8K. BalovF
- 55D. SaricM
- 50S. RadanovićG
Form going into Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki 1923
All competitions we cover
- W5-3away to OFK Beograd19 September 2026
- W5-0Mladost Lucani12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Macva5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Radnicki NIS29 August 2026
- W2-1IMT Novi Beograd22 August 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
- W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
What these results say
- Radnicki 1923 went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Radnicki 1923 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 23 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 6 | +32 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 1 March 2026Radnicki 1923 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 28 September 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 23 April 2025Radnicki 1923 4–1 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 8 February 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 6–0 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 1 September 2024Radnicki 1923 0–1 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Radnicki 1923 and FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki 1923
GoalsAssists
- U. Sremčević61
- M. Cissé42
FK Crvena Zvezda
GoalsAssists
- B. Dieng50
- V. Kostov43
- A. Katai34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FK Crvena Zvezda won 3–0 at Radnicki 1923. The model had made a win for FK Crvena Zvezda its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bamba Dieng 48' for FK Crvena Zvezda, stefan gudelj 58' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Marko Arnautović 88' for FK Crvena Zvezda. On expected goals it finished 1.35–2.17.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radnicki 1923 a 66.6% chance to finish in the top four: 76.3% after a win, 67.7% after a draw, 62.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.4%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
For FK Crvena Zvezda the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 92.9% going in: 95.1% after a win, 91.8% after a draw, 89.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.1%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Radnicki 1923 v FK Crvena Zvezda has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 26% / 28% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 24% / 27% / 49%: the biggest move is FK Crvena Zvezda's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Radnicki 1923 win24%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- FK Crvena Zvezda win49%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Radnicki 1923's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and FK Crvena Zvezda's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.