Radnicki 1923
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnicki 1923 0–1 FK Crvena Zvezda
The model makes it 26% Radnicki 1923, 28% draw, 46% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Radnicki 1923 1.02, FK Crvena Zvezda 1.73.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki 1923
- W5-3away to OFK Beograd19 September 2026
- W5-0Mladost Lucani12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Macva5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Radnicki NIS29 August 2026
- W2-1IMT Novi Beograd22 August 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
- W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
What these results say
- Radnicki 1923 went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Radnicki 1923 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 3 | +21 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 1 March 2026Radnicki 1923 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 28 September 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 23 April 2025Radnicki 1923 4–1 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 8 February 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 6–0 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 1 September 2024Radnicki 1923 0–1 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 12 May 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 3–2 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
Leading scorers: Radnicki 1923 and FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki 1923
- M. Cissé4 goals1 assists
- U. Sremčević4 goals
- D. Buchta3 goals1 assists
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov4 goals1 assists
- M. Abu Fani2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Radnicki 1923 carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.74 for FK Crvena Zvezda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Radnicki 1923 and 1.73 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnicki 1923 rate 0.59 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.86 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Radnicki 1923 a 1.4% chance of the title and FK Crvena Zvezda 87.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Radnicki 1923 against 1.73 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Radnicki 1923's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.08 for FK Crvena Zvezda.