Sepahan FC
vs
Malavan
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Sepahan FC 2–0 Malavan
The model makes it 65% Sepahan FC, 21% draw, 14% Malavan — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Sepahan FC 2.38, Malavan 0.85.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
One-sided: Sepahan FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Sepahan FC's rating is built from 31 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Malavan's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sepahan FC are 4th on 17 points from 9 games; Malavan are 13th on 8 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Sepahan FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Shams Azar Qazvin.
- Malavan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Foolad FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Sepahan FC 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Sepahan FC 0–0 Malavan.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sepahan FC vs Malavan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sepahan FC at 65% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 358 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.6%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Sepahan FC vs Malavan
Sepahan FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D0-0away to Shams Azar Qazvin18 October 2026
- W2-1away to ZOB Ahan13 October 2026
- W6-1Fajr Sepasi8 October 2026
- W1-0Esteghlal Khuzestan6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sanat Naft2 September 2026
Malavan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L1-2Foolad FC13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Aluminium Arak8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak7 September 2026
- L0-1Nassaji Mazandaran2 September 2026
- L0-3away to Persepolis FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sepahan FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Malavan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Malavan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sepahan FC vs Malavan
- 17 January 2026Sepahan FC 0–0 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 August 2025Malavan 1–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 26 April 2025Malavan 0–0 Sepahan FCHazfi Cup
- 7 February 2025Malavan 1–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 September 2024Sepahan FC 1–0 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 16 May 2024Sepahan FC 1–0 MalavanHazfi Cup
The two sides
Sepahan FC carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.26 for Malavan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Sepahan FC and 0.85 for Malavan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sepahan FC rate 0.80 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malavan rate 0.56 and 1.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sepahan FC a 4.1% chance of the title and Malavan 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepahan FC the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Sepahan FC against 0.85 for Malavan. Sepahan FC's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.83 for Malavan.
How the model reaches 65% for Sepahan FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sepahan FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sepahan FC's ratings take away 12 points and Malavan's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sepahan FC's ratings32%−12
- Malavan's ratings65%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sepahan FC at home · Malavan away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Sepahan FC 9, Malavan 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.