Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Seattle Sounders 0-0 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Seattle Sounders, 28% draw, 33% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 16A. RoldanD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 5NouhouD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 45P. KingstonM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 11A. RusnakM
- 14P. RothrockM
- 9D. JoveljicF
- 24S. FreiG
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 35A. LopezD
- 4R. SailorD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 90S. GomezM
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 37M. SofoM
- 7C. CowellF
- 16J. HallF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 12D. NealisD
- 8D. RuizM
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 17C. HarperF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 91M. JimenezF
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls
Seattle Sounders
- D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
- L1-2Austin20 August 2026
- L0-2Vancouver Whitecaps17 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
- W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 41 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and New York Red Bulls
Seattle Sounders
GoalsAssists
- D. Joveljić121
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.