Seattle Sounders
vs
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 40% Seattle Sounders, 25% draw, 35% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.60, New York Red Bulls 1.47.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Seattle Sounders
- D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
- L1-2Austin20 August 2026
- L0-2Vancouver Whitecaps17 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026
New York Red Bulls
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Seattle Sounders carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.58 for New York Red Bulls. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Seattle Sounders L-L-L-L-D; New York Red Bulls L-W-L-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Seattle Sounders and 1.47 for New York Red Bulls. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Seattle Sounders rate 0.55 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York Red Bulls rate 0.87 and 1.54.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Seattle Sounders the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Seattle Sounders against 1.47 for New York Red Bulls. Seattle Sounders's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.54 for New York Red Bulls.