Al-Ittihad vs Al-Nassr Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Ittihad 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Al-Ittihad, 28% draw, 31% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ittihad at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Ittihad vs Al-Nassr
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. RajkovicG
- 32A. Al JulaydanD
- 2D. PereiraD
- 15H. KadeshD
- 25F. AbdiD
- 30D. LopyM
- 8M. AliM
- 27A. Al GhamdiM
- 10H. AouarM
- 34S. BergwijnM
- 9G. IlenikhenaF
- 50M. Al AbsiG
- 42M. FagihyD
- 13M. Al ShanqitiD
- 66M. BarnawiD
- 60R. KaabiM
- 5R. RiosM
- 11S. Al ShehriF
- 21Y. En NesyriF
- 22M. Al SahafiF
- 1N. Al AqidiG
- 12N. BoushalD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 5A. Al AmriD
- 83S. Al NajdiD
- 21K. ComanM
- 20AngeloM
- 11Samu CostaM
- 10S. ManeM
- 79Joao FelixF
- 7C. RonaldoF
- 24BentoG
- 4N. Al SharariD
- 6S. Al NasserD
- 70A. AmanD
- 23A. YahyaM
- 17A. Al KhaibariM
- 14S. Al NajeiM
- 9A. Al HamdanF
- 60S. HaqawiF
Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Al-Nassr
Al-Ittihad
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Al-Fateh29 August 2026
Al-Nassr
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and Al-Nassr
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- Y. En-Nesyri70
- G. Ilenikhena63
- S. Bergwijn51
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Ittihad beat Al-Nassr 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al-Ittihad at 41%. The goals: G. Ilenikhena 4' for Al-Ittihad, G. Ilenikhena 22' for Al-Ittihad, Angelo 36' for Al-Nassr. On expected goals it finished 1.84–1.65.