Real Salt Lake
vs
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 53% Real Salt Lake, 23% draw, 24% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.99, Los Angeles FC 1.30.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Real Salt Lake
- L1-2away to Orlando City SC22 August 2026
- L3-4FC Dallas20 August 2026
- D1-1Minnesota United FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to St. Louis City2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
Los Angeles FC
- D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids20 August 2026
- L0-1San Diego16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps1 August 2026
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 28 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.4 for Los Angeles FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Real Salt Lake L-D-D-L-L; Los Angeles FC W-D-L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.30 for Los Angeles FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.77 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles FC rate 0.54 and 1.37.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Los Angeles FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Salt Lake a 0% chance of the title and Los Angeles FC 1.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.3 for Los Angeles FC. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.37 for Los Angeles FC.