FC Dallas
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 45% FC Dallas, 25% draw, 30% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Dallas 1.61, Sporting Kansas City 1.27.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Dallas
- L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
- W4-3away to Real Salt Lake20 August 2026
- W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Diego26 July 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
- L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
- L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
- W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 33 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Dallas
- P. Musa16 goals2 assists
Sporting Kansas City
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Dallas carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.31 for Sporting Kansas City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Dallas L-D-W-W-L; Sporting Kansas City W-L-L-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for FC Dallas and 1.27 for Sporting Kansas City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dallas rate 0.49 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Kansas City rate 0.59 and 1.74.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Dallas a 1% chance of the title and Sporting Kansas City 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.27 for Sporting Kansas City. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.74 for Sporting Kansas City.