FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Dallas 4-3 Sporting Kansas City.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% FC Dallas, 29% draw, 27% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40J. SiroisG
- 18S. MooreD
- 32N. NorrisD
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 21J. ValienteM
- 55KaickM
- 17RamiroM
- 77B. KamungoM
- 23L. FarringtonF
- 9P. MusaF
- 30M. CollodiG
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 24J. TorquatoD
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 12C. CappisM
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 33C. HolstadM
- 10S. MorenoF
- 28S. SarverF
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 3M. MosqueraD
- 5O. BlorianD
- 18E. KaricD
- 11Andre LuizM
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 7CapitaM
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 15J. MillerD
- 57Diego BorgesD
- 99J. ReidD
- 16J. BartlettD
- 28W. MeyerD
- 24R. RamosF
- 93S. SuleymanovF
- 29S. ReidF
Form going into FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City
FC Dallas
- D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
- L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
- W4-3away to Real Salt Lake20 August 2026
- W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
- L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
- L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Dallas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Dallas had three goals or more.
- Sporting Kansas City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 47 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 68 | -33 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Sporting Kansas City
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa195
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.