Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 22% Los Angeles Galaxy, 20% draw, 58% New England Revolution — fair odds of 4.55, 5.00 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.42, New England Revolution 2.36.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Los Angeles Galaxy
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
- W1-0San Jose Earthquakes20 August 2026
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes26 July 2026
New England Revolution
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
The two sides
Los Angeles Galaxy carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.64 for New England Revolution. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Los Angeles Galaxy D-D-L-W-D; New England Revolution W-D-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 2.36 for New England Revolution. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.61 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New England Revolution rate 0.81 and 1.23.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New England Revolution the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy against 2.36 for New England Revolution. Los Angeles Galaxy's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.23 for New England Revolution.