Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 New England Revolution.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Los Angeles Galaxy, 28% draw, 41% New England Revolution — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New England Revolution at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 26H. MillerD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 15J. HaakD
- 3J. AudeD
- 6S. RobertoM
- 27E. ThommyM
- 21R. TaylorM
- 18M. ReusM
- 11H. LozanoM
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 1N. MicovicG
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 14J. NelsonD
- 25C. GarcesD
- 17P. RuizM
- 16I. ParenteM
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 28J. PaintsilF
- 30M. TurnerG
- 8M. PolsterD
- 22E. KohlerD
- 2M. FofanaD
- 23W. SandsD
- 21B. RainesM
- 80A. YusufM
- 11J. HarrisonM
- 10C. GilM
- 25P. MillerM
- 99D. TurgemanF
- 33D. ParisianG
- 4T. BeasonD
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 16D. GazdagM
- 14J. YueillM
- 77D. FagundezM
- 7G. YowF
- 41L. LangoniF
- 27W. HarrisF
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
Los Angeles Galaxy
- L1-3away to San Diego30 August 2026
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
- W1-0San Jose Earthquakes20 August 2026
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
New England Revolution
- W3-1away to Columbus Crew30 August 2026
- D1-1New York City FC23 August 2026
- W3-0away to DC United19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC15 August 2026
- L0-2Houston Dynamo8 August 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles Galaxy failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 36 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table