Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Austin, 28% draw, 30% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austin at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38E. TorresM
- 14B. SabovicM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 11F. TorresF
- 9B. VazquezF
- 24J. AlastueyF
- 12D. LasG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 15J. BellD
- 23Z. KolmanicD
- 35M. DjordjevicD
- 6I. SanchezM
- 32M. BurtonM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 77P. PlachetaM
- 1A. GunnG
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 5D. MunieD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 28B. KikanovicM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 34B. LerouxM
- 2J. RickettsM
- 10N. TsakirisF
- 23E. LowenF
- 7O. BoudaF
- 31F. MontaliG
- 4D. RomneyD
- 87Vitor CostaD
- 17J. JasinskiD
- 16J. SkahanM
- 6I. HarkesM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 19P. JuddF
- 9L. JovanovicF
Form going into Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes
Austin
- W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
- L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
What these results say
- Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Austin.
- San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 31 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Austin and San Jose Earthquakes
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd152
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.